Weekly Column

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From here to Eternity - Commentary no. 401

When Britain declared war on Germany on September 3rd 1939, the anniversary of which occurs this week, it had little idea that, what initially looked like a purely European affair, would end up as a massive global struggle involving the whole of the world. This had not happened before.

Hitherto, conflicts amongst the great powers had had their impact overseas in that the colonies of the powers that were defeated got transferred to the Empires of the victors. We saw a good deal of this following the Napoleonic wars and then following the 1914-18 War. In the first, the French lost a number of overseas possessions to the British, while in the second the Germans lost their colonies, also to the British. But in the Second World War, we had, not only the huge conflict between Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany, but also the advent of Japan as the new contender in the Pacific.

The final outcome of the Second World War spelt the end of European empires. The French, the Dutch and finally the British empires were all finished off by the Second World War. This outcome was in a sense unexpected. Winston Churchill had said in 1940 “If the British Empire lasted a thousand years, this would be their finest hour”. Well, it was their finest hour, but there was no question of the Empire lasting a thousand years. Indeed, it was well on its way to extinction within 10 years. Yet, we in Britain, were amongst the nations that won the war. What finished the British Empire was Gandhi in India and the fall of Singapore during the war. Within two years of VE day we had granted the two countries in the Indian subcontinent full independence. The war had shown that the European powers no longer had the determination and commitment to maintain their grip.

But instead, as Paul Kennedy observed in his 1987 classic The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, the Americans filled the gap left by the rubble of the old system. What they did was to change the way the domination was established. They had learnt from the Pacific war that naval domination maintained by aircraft carriers was the solution. Furthermore, once these were powered by nuclear reactors, they no longer had any need for far flung naval ports which the British had maintained.

The only other great power following the Second World War was the Soviet Union. Having beaten the German army and occupied two thirds of Europe, they were the only player capable of challenging the US, but, as we know, their system collapsed some twenty years ago. Following this collapse, Europe has swung over to the American side.

Now we see the emergence of China and India as potential world powers, and also the recovery to some degree of Russia. The result is that this century, the 21st, will see the world divided into 4 super powers, the US, Russia, China and India. All four will continue to be harassed by international terrorism which, however, could be finally overcome if the four powers worked together.

Meanwhile, the continents of Africa and South America will see fierce rivalry particularly, from China.

The ultimate question is whether, as this new alignment takes shapes, these 4 powers can live in harmony. Otherwise, I wouldn’t like to be around for the Third World War.

In a sense, this next phase of global drama will be marked by the countries with very large populations. As huge numbers of people become harnessed to modern technology, largely developed by the US, they will take up the lead in the global competion. The key seems to be a form of state capitalism which combines the discipline of a command economy with the freedom of the entrepreneur to create wealth.

The dominance of the big four will probably go hand in hand with the success of the entrepreneurial city states like Singapore. If Britain plays its cards right, we could be the Singapore of the west. As for the rest of Europe it will become the major tourist centre of this new global order. Wait till the Chinese really discover the pleasure of vacationing in the old world.

Tony Rudd

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